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Aug 9, 2009
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Brazil data to show domestic consumer strength

By
Reuters
Published
Aug 9, 2009

NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's retail sales data this week will likely show domestic consumption continues to grow steadily, pushing Latin America's largest economy out of recession at a fast pace.



In contrast, Chile's central bank may announce additional unconventional measures to stimulate the country's economy and stop an incipient deflationary trend.

Brazil's June retail sales are expected to jump 6.5 percent year-on-year and 1.2 percent month-on-month, following a rise of 4.0 percent and 0.8 percent in May, respectively. The data is due on Thursday 13 August.

"June's retail sales data is this week's key data print. With the government and the central bank clearly voicing that Brazil's economy is recovering strongly, thanks to resilient domestic demand, the bar has been set very high for this coming week's retail sales print," RBC Capital Markets said in a research note.

Last week, Finance Minister Guido Mantega told investors in Washington that the Brazilian economy was already growing at a 4 percent pace in the beginning of the third quarter, boosted by a series of counter-cyclical policies implemented by the government.

Inflation, however, is subdued or declining in most of Latin America. In Chile, a sharper-than-expected drop in consumer prices in July might force the central bank to adopt nonconventional policies to stimulate the economy, such as more cash injections or intervention in the foreign-exchange market to weaken the peso.

The Chilean central bank has already slashed its key lending rate by 775 basis points to 0.5 percent. At its latest monetary policy meeting, the central bank adopted additional measures such as creating a liquidity facility for banks and curbing the issuance of short-term government debt.

(By Walter Brandimarte. Editing by Jan Paschal)

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